🔗 Share this article

Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.